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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE 
HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM FROM THE MOUTH OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE
BORGNE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE.
 
THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY
FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  89.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  89.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  89.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N  90.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 210SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N  90.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 220SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N  90.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE   0SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N  90.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.4N  91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.8N  92.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N  91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N  85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  89.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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