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Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202019
200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the
circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the
convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the
appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect
some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been
set at 40 kt.

The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level
trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula.
This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond
is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into
a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then
should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough.
The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the
vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving
northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level
center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula.

Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past
several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that
Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed
embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough
west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the
track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be
very weak or probably dissipating.

Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula,
rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough
will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja
California peninsula later this weekend.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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