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Tropical Depression Priscilla Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192019
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Priscilla moved inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico around
1930 UTC just to the east of Manzanillo. The rugged terrain in that
area is expected to cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken and
dissipate by 12 hours, if not sooner. Satellite intensity estimates
at 1800 UTC were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T2.7/37 kt and
38 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an
intensity of 35 kt at that time. However, the intensity has been
decreased to 30 kt at the advisory time since Priscilla is now
located inland, with most of the deep convection having been
displaced well to the north of the low-level center.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Tropical Depression
Priscilla will continue to move northward and farther inland over
southwestern Mexico, resulting in rapid weakening and dissipation
during the next 12 hours. A 12-hour forecast position was provided
mainly for continuity purposes.

The primary threat with Priscilla and its remnants will be heavy
rainfall, along with the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 19.1N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/0600Z 20.0N 104.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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