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Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a
well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery.
With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data
revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt.  A new small
burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's
difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will
meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone.  The
new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could
maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's
probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate
into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase
substantially.  Either way, dry air and increasing shear are
expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next
24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt.  This motion is
likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level
trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make
a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period.  The
updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous
forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids.
However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi
spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET
model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
exactly where Octave will end up.  Fortunately, it is not likely to
be a significant cyclone at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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