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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172019
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
The disturbance does not appear to a have a well-defined center,
but if there is one trying to form, it has to be a little farther
to the northwest near the convection. In fact, fixes from both TAFB
and SAB suggest that a possible center is within the small area of
convection. Partial ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance remains
poorly organized at this time.
With the disturbance approaching land, the chances of it becoming a
tropical storm or even a depression before landfall are diminishing.
However, the system could reach 35 kt within the next 6 hours or so.
Once inland, dissipation over the high terrain of southern Mexico is
anticipated.
Since there is not a well-defined center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 315
degrees at 11 kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the
extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer the
disturbance toward the northwest with no change is forward speed.
This motion is forecast by most of the global models which bring
the disturbance inland quite soon.
The primary threat from this disturbance is heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico during
the next day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 15.4N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 16/1800Z 16.5N 96.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 18.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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