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Tropical Storm NARDA


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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 109.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located inland near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 109.3 West.
Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by
late tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today.

RAINFALL:  Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through today:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF:  Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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