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Potential Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN-E


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  99.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 120SE  50SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE  70SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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