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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico
is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a
well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests
that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco.  Since
there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of
Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E.

Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing
winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large
envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of
southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening,
but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm
status.  By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to
be high, and the system should weaken.

The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not
a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest
or 315 degrees at 11 kt.  High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward
the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California.
This is the solution provided by the reliable models.

If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a
chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated
resulting in faster weakening.  Regardless of how strong the system
becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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