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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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