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HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 125.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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