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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

Forty to forty-five knots of south-southwesterly shear has caused
Kiko's convection to become displaced from the low-level center by
about 70 n mi.  A blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB, as well as the latest ADT, supports lowering the initial
intensity to 40 kt.  The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that
Kiko is heading for even stronger shear during the next 6-12 hours,
which should lead to further degradation in the cyclone's
structure and a quick decrease in its maximum winds.  The GFS and
ECMWF simulated infrared satellite fields suggest that all deep
convection could dissipate by 24 hours, and as a result, the time of
Kiko's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up to 36 hours
in the official forecast.  Dissipation is expected by day 4.

Kiko's initial motion is northwestward, or 310/9 kt.  The cyclone
is moving between a mid-/upper-level low to its west and mid-level
ridging to its northeast.  However, once it loses its deep
convection and becomes a shallow vortex, Kiko is expected to turn
westward (by 36 hours) and then west-southwestward (by 48 hours).
Only minor adjustments to the NHC track forecast were required, and
on the forecast track, Kiko should cross 140W into the central
Pacific basin later this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 17.9N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 18.7N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 19.4N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 19.4N 142.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 143.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 18.3N 146.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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