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Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019
A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and
mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some
southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud
tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass.
Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and
SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little
generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during
the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and
in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing
southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are
likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed
forecast is very close to the previous advisory.
It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow
mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today,
which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later
today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days,
but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko
is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track
guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC
forecast lies near the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
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