ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Kiko continues to have an irregular shape on satellite imagery, with
most of the convection near the center and in the southeastern
quadrant of the cyclone.  Still, overnight microwave data indicate
that the hurricane still has a central core, and the latest
satellite estimates support Kiko remaining a 65-kt cyclone on this
advisory.

Kiko has turned toward the west-southwest this morning due to
increased ridging extending from the central Pacific.  The synoptic
pattern is rather changeable near the tropical cyclone, with a
sinuous track anticipated during the next several days due to
fluctuations in strength of the subtropical ridge.  The forecast has
been shifted southward at most times, since the GFS-based guidance
has trended toward the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. However, the NHC track
is on the northern side of the guidance envelope.

The shear that has been affecting Kiko is forecast to relent later
today, which should put an end to the weakening trend.  By late
Wednesday, the cyclone could begin to re-strengthen due to the
relaxation of the shear while the storm is over warmer waters.  At
long range, shear is forecast to increase in about 4 days, causing
weakening around that time, although there's little agreement on
whether that shear will last.  The model guidance is higher at most
forecast times than the last cycle, which makes some sense given the
southerly adjustment to the track forecast.  Thus, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted slightly upward, but is below the
corrected consensus guidance at most times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 17.0N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN