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Hurricane KIKO


Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has lost some organization this evening.  The eye of the
hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as
symmetric as it was earlier today.  The initial intensity is
lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous.
Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful
hurricane, its wind field is quite compact.  Based on that data,
Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from
the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20
n mi from the center.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow
subtropical ridge to its north.  This motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected for about 24 hours.  The models all depict
Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in
response to a ridge building to its northwest.  After that time,
the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to
the northwest and others more westward or southwestward.  The NHC
official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving
slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several

The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the
forecast period.  Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of
upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of
dry air.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity
consensus aids.


INIT  16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi