Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm KIKO


Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight
and this morning.  A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass
from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the
center, and that a banded eye had formed.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the
UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt.  Based on the continued
increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to
60 kt.

Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear
environment during the next day or so.  This should allow for
additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a
hurricane later today.  The new NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of
the guidance envelope.  By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into
an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler
waters.  As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in
forecast period.

The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  The
track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours,
especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin.  This appears
to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how
the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge.  The
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a
stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge.  Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading.
Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep
system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a
little north of the consensus models.  After that time, Kiko is
likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward
the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly flow.  As a result of the large model spread, the
confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.


INIT  14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Brown