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Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops
as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC.  Although it's likely that
the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range
from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.
Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory.

Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface
temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain
below 26C for the next 3 days or so.  In addition, west-
southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially
by 48 hours.  If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette
will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain
that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next
several days.  The low should open up into a trough around day 5.

The initial motion is 280/10 kt.  Now that the cyclone has become
shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the
low-level trade winds.  The track models are in good agreement on
the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable
changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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