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Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection associated with Juliette has continued to gradually
decrease in coverage and organization today.  The various satellite
intensity estimates have continued to slowly decline, and now
support an initial intensity of 60 kt.  The tropical storm will be
moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment during
the next 24 to 36 hours.  This should result in steady weakening
and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to
48 hours.  The system will be moving back over slightly warmer
waters later in the forecast period, but westerly shear should
prevent any re-organization.

Juliette is now moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should
continue west-northwestward tonight, and then turn westward on
Saturday as it weakens and is steered by the low-level easterly
flow.  The track guidance remains in good agreement but has trended
slightly faster once again.  The new official forecast was adjusted
accordingly, and is once again near the TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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