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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage
over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still
wraps completely around the center.  Subjective and objective raw
T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the
current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5.  Using a blend of
these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the
weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this
advisory.  Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees
Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air
mass along the predicted path of the storm.  These conditions
should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette
is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours.

Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or
300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24
hours.  After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within
the low-level tradewind flow.  The dynamical models are in better
agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the
cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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