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Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite
imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images,
however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that
the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak
data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a
70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and
the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette
will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a
drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These
unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the
hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to
cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now
anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3.

Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or
305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight
and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected
as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good
agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant
differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this
model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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