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Hurricane JULIETTE


Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Juliette continues to look somewhat ragged in conventional infrared
satellite imagery this morning. A warm spot, which appears to be an
eye, has been showing up intermittently during the past several
hours. A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated the eyewall was open
in the south quadrant, so all indications are that additional
weakening has taken place. The latest subjective and objective
T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also suggest
weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to
85 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is west-northwestward, or
295/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is
expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward at a slightly faster
forward motion during the next few days. Toward the end of the
forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens,
and likely loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system
will be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track
forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous
forecast package. This more closely follows the latest trusted
guidance, especially the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA and the TVCE
corrected variable consensus model.

Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, reduced ocean heat content,
an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone
during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast continues to
show a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous
advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the
weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast.


INIT  04/1500Z 19.5N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Houston