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Hurricane JULIETTE


Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night,
and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The
initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also
the recently improved eye pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge
located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the
hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By
day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens
considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow.
The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the
previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA
and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south.

Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly
reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold
upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening
trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered
by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level
outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant
upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid
weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then
closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5.


INIT  03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

Forecaster Stewart