ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019
Although the storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface
temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band
over the southern semicircle. A combination of satellite intensity
estimates and recent ASCAT-C data suggest that the maximum winds
remain near 35 kt, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a
research mission just reported a central pressure of 1000 mb.
The cyclone should continue to move over cooler sea surface
temperatures, and thus weakening is expected. The new intensity
forecast again follows the guidance and the previous forecast in
calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to
a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h.
The initial motion is 335/7. The subtropical ridge to the east
should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next day or
so. After that, the cyclone is likely to slow its forward motion
and turn northward as the low-level flow becomes the dominate
steering mechanism. The new official forecast track is again
similar to the previous track through 24 h, and after that it is
shifted slightly to the east of the previous track.
The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo
during the last few days has generated high swells that are now
reaching portions of the southern Baja California peninsula.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 22.3N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW