ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102019
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Deep convection associated with Ivo has made a comeback during the
past several hours, with a large convective mass now near the center
over the western semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates have
decreased a little more since the last advisory, and the initial
intensity is reduced to a possibly conservative 35 kt.  The cyclone
is moving steadily over cooler sea surface temperatures and
continued weakening is expected.  The new intensity forecast
therefore follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling
for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a
remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h.

The initial motion is 330/8.  The subtropical ridge to the east
should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next couple
of days, with some decrease in forward speed before the system
dissipates.  The new official forecast track is again similar to
the previous track.

Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated
with Ivo during the last few days, high swells continue to
propagate northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja
California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 21.8N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 24.6N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 26.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 26.8N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN