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Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092019
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Henriette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with microwave and
first-light visible satellite imagery revealing a low level center
that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. The
overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past
several hours, and therefore the initial intensity is being held at
35 kt. This is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass showing a
very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of
the circulation.

The initial motion is 295/10 kt. Henriette is expected to continue
this general motion for the next 24 hours as it is steered by a
mid-level ridge that extends from northern Mexico to the north of
the cyclone. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the
system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
official forecast is slightly south of the previous one through 24
hours, due to a more southward initial position. Beyond 24 hours,
the official forecast is very near the previous one, and near the
middle of the consensus aids.

Northeasterly shear and dry air over the northern portion of the
cyclone should continue to keep the low level center near the edge
of the deep convection into tonight, preventing any further
strengthening. By 24 hours, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26
C SST isotherm and move into a more stable airmass. This should
cause the cyclone to lose its convection and weaken on Tuesday, with
the system likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night. The
official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, and is in
agreement with the various dynamical and consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 19.7N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

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