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Tropical Depression Gil Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082019
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019

Strong northwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Gil
overnight with the low-level center of the cyclone becoming even
more exposed.  The main convective mass has also decreased
in size with a new smaller burst of convection recently developing
to the northeast of the center, however satellite imagery shows
that the new burst is already beginning to shear away.  A recent
ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of around 25 kt, so the initial
intensity has been lowered somewhat conservatively to 30 kt.  The
strong shear over the cyclone is not expected to abate during the
next 24 to 36 hours, and this, along with dry mid-level air, should
continue to cause Gil to weaken over the next day or so.  The
global model unanimously show the cyclone degenerating into a
trough of low pressure within 48 hours, and so does the updated NHC
forecast.

Gil is moving westward or 275/10 kt.  There is no change to the
track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone should continue moving
generally westward during the next day or so while a low- to
mid-level ridge remains to its north.  The official track
forecast is again close to the previous advisory and the latest
HFIP corrected model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 14.9N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 15.1N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.2N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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