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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072019
0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 113.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 123.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 134.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH


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