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Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

Erick's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization over the
past several hours, although there is slight evidence of increased
convective banding over the southern semicircle of the circulation.
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt,
so the advisory intensity is held at 35 kt for now.  An upper-level
anticyclone is established over the storm, and water temperatures
are sufficiently warm for intensification.  Apparently, Erick has
not yet acquired a well-defined inner core but that is expected
to occur rather soon.  Therefore, steady strengthening is likely to
begin within the next 12 hours.  Some of the dynamical intensity
models along with the simple and corrected consensus aids show the
system becoming a hurricane within 36 hours, so the official
forecast has been increased from the earlier NHC predictions and is
near or below the consensus through 72 hours.  By days 4 to 5,
increased shear and some drier air is likely to cause weakening.

The motion continues to be only slightly north of due west, or
280/14 kt.  The steering scenario is fairly straightforward.  A
fairly well-defined mid-level ridge is forecast by the global models
to remain established to the north of Erick throughout most of the
forecast period.  By the end of the forecast period, this ridge is
likely to weaken, and this could cause a more northward motion to
develop.  By that time however, the weakening cyclone should be
steered more by the low-level easterly flow which should keep the
motion on a generally westward or just north of westward heading.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and
close to the corrected dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 12.1N 128.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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