ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Dalila is hanging on as a tropical depression.  After having
little deep convection throughout the day, a new area of
thunderstorms has formed during the past several hours over the
northeastern quadrant, which is over slightly warmer water.  The
remainder of the circulation consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in agreement with
the earlier ASCAT data and the 00Z Dvorak classification from TAFB.
Dalila is not expected to hold on much longer as a tropical cyclone,
as progressively cooler waters and stable air should cause the deep
convection to dissipate soon.  The NHC intensity forecast continues
to show gradual weakening, and ultimately dissipation in 2 to 3
days.

The center of the depression has jogged to the north, likely due to
the development of the convection on its northeast side.  Smoothing
through this recent jog yields a motion of 325/6.  As the
convection dies, the weak cyclone is expected to turn to the
west-northwest and then the west within the low-level trade wind
flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the
previous one, based on the more northward initial position, and lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 21.4N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 22.8N 124.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN