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Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019
Deep convection associated with Dalila has continued to wane since
the previous advisory, and the system has become a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds with a small area of colder cloud tops over the
eastern semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds
of 25 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory.
Dalila will continue to move over progressively cooler waters, and
into a drier and more stable air mass during the next day or two.
This should result in additional weakening, and Dalila is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Thursday.
Dalila is still moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. As the cyclone
weakens and becomes an increasingly vertically shallow system, it is
forecast to turn west-northwestward within the low-level easterly
flow. The models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC
forecast track is close to the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 20.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW