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Tropical Depression DALILA


Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Dalila has maintained a robust low-level circulation based on recent
scatterometer wind data, but those data also indicate that Dalila's
peak winds had decreased to 27-30 kt despite a sharp increase in
deep convection near and southeast of the center.  UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON estimates suggest a higher intensity of 35-44 kt. However, it
appears that the cooler water that the cyclone is moving over has
stabilized the boundary layer, which is not allowing the normal
downward mixing of stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Given
the lower ASCAT wind data, Dalila has been downgraded to a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The initial motion estimate is 315/05 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track and intensity forecast philosophies.
Dalila is expected to move northwestward today, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest on Thursday when the weakening cyclone
becomes more shallow and comes under the influence of easterly
trade wind flow. The cyclone is now moving over 25 deg C sea-surface
temperatures, with cooler water and more stable air still ahead of
Dalila. As a result, convection is expected to gradually wane during
the next 24 hours, accompanied by a steady spin down of the vortex,
which should result in the system degenerating into a post-tropical
remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. The NHC track and
intensity forecasts closely follow the consensus models HCCA and
IVCN, respectively.


INIT  24/0900Z 19.8N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Stewart