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Tropical Depression FIVE-E


Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This evening's visible satellite presentation consists of a rather
ragged and shapeless cloud pattern with multiple cloud swirls seen
rotating around the mean surface circulation center.  The Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain
unchanged (T2.0/30 kt) as well as the initial intensity.

There are no changes to the forecast intensity philosophy.  Both
the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS indicate that the northerly shear currently
impinging on the northeastern portion of the system will persist
through the forecast period.  This inhibiting wind pattern along
with cooler oceanic surface temperatures, ahead of the predicted
track, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low
in 48 hours with dissipation in 4 days or less.  The only model
that shows strengthening to tropical storm status is the COAMPS-TC.
For continuity purposes, I've elected to maintain this slight 12-24
hour intensification period in the official forecast.

Because of the ill-defined circulation, the initial motion is
estimated to be a bit uncertain north-northwestward, or 345/7
kt, within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by high
pressure located over the southwestern United States.  The
depression should continue moving in a general northwestward
direction toward a break in the ridge to the northwest of the
cyclone during the next 2 days.  Afterward, as the system begins to
weaken, a turn toward the west-northwest, within the tradewind flow,
is anticipated.  The model guidance is tightly clustered with the
exception being the left outlier UKMET.  The only adjustment in the
NHC forecast is, again, a shift slightly to the left of the previous
advisory, but follows both the TVCE and HCCA consensus models


INIT  23/0300Z 17.6N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Roberts