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Hurricane BARBARA


Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019

Barbara is a large and powerful hurricane. The latest ASCAT
scatterometer data confirms that tropical-storm-force winds extend
up to 160 n mi from the center, while the hurricane-force winds
extend up to 30 n mi from the center. A very impressive outflow
channel exists over nearly a 20 degree swath of ocean to the north
of the cyclone. There are at least two mesocyclones evident in the
well-defined eye, and cloud tops are colder than -70 degrees C in
most of the eyewall. A compromise between the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the objective estimates of
CIMSS ADT and SATCON yield an initial intensity of 120 kt for this

Barbara continues to move toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 12 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge extending from the west
coast of the United States westward across the eastern Pacific.
Barbara will turn northwestward in 36 to 48 hours as it reaches the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, once the cyclone
weakens to a shallow system, it should turn back westward steered by
the low-level flow as per the majority of the track guidance.

There is still a small window of opportunity today and this evening
for additional strengthening of Barbara, while it remains over SSTs
greater than 28 deg C and in a low shear environment. The SSTs ahead
of Barbara start to decline Wednesday morning due to the forecast
track taking the hurricane over progressively cooler waters of about
26.5 deg C in 24 hours, and near 25 deg C in 72 hours. In addition,
the cyclone will be approaching a more stable airmass and moving
into increasing southwesterly vertical shear within a few days. All
of these conditions suggest that Barbara should begin a slow
weakening trend on Wednesday, with the weakening accelerating after
48 hours. By the time Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is
likely to be a tropical storm or even a remnant low.

NOTE:  Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane
Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time,
and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard
Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time
(PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W.  Since Barbara's
day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products
are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time.


INIT  02/2100Z 12.9N 123.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.4N 124.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 14.2N 126.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 16.4N 130.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 19.3N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi