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Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 01 2019

The satellite presentation of Barbara has continued to improve
with the development of a central dense overcast, plenty of
convective bands, and an excellent upper-level outflow pattern. The
cyclone structure in microwave images has also improved, although
the low- and middle-levels are not quite aligned yet. Dvorak
T-numbers have continued to gradually increase, and an average of
these estimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt.

The environment of low shear and high ocean temperature favors
significant strengthening of the cyclone, and in fact, Rapid
Intensification Indexes provided in the SHIPS model suites are quite
high, indicating that more than a 70 percent chance of this process
is expected to occur. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for
Barbara to increase in intensity to Category 3 or even 4 on the
Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale within the next day or two. Beyond 3
days, Barbara will encounter cooler waters and gradual weakening
should then begin.

Barbara has decreased its forward speed a little, and the best
estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or
275 degrees at 14 kt. The deep-layer mean flow steering the
cyclone is expected to weaken further, and this should result in an
additional decrease in the hurricane's forward speed, but no change
in direction.  There has been no significant change in the
track guidance, and most of the models are still tightly clustered,
bringing the hurricane toward the west-northwest through the next 5
days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one,
perhaps a very small shift to the north, but in general, it is
basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 11.4N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 11.7N 119.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 12.2N 121.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 13.5N 125.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 15.1N 129.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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