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Tropical Depression ONE-E


Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of
the coast of Mexico has become sufficiently well organized today,
and visible satellite imagery suggest that the system has acquired a
well-defined center.  Based on these observations, advisories are
being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2019
eastern Pacific hurricane season.  The latest Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5 respectively, and the initial wind
speed has been set at 25 kt.  The depression is forecast to remain
over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low wind shear
environment during the next couple of days.  Although there is some
dry mid-level air to the west of the cyclone, modest strengthening
is indicated by most of the intensity guidance, and the NHC foreast
follows suit. After 48 hours, increasing south-southwesterly shear
and cooler waters are expected to cause weakening, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge extending from northwestern Mexico into the eastern
Pacific should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next
few days.  There is spread in the guidance as to how much latitude
the system will gain over the next few days.  The ECMWF which does
not deepen the system much, if at all, shows a more southern track
than the remainder of the guidance.  The NHC forecast assumes that
the system will strengthen some and shows a more climatological
west-northwestward track close to the multi-model consensus.


INIT  25/2100Z 15.2N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown