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Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly
intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas
around 1800 UTC.  A National Ocean Service observing site near
Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to
41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb.  A Weatherflow station
at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust
to 44 kt.  The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent
Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still
offshore.

Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other
recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007.
Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant
strengthening could occur.  Now that the center is moving inland,
gradual weakening is expected.  It cannot be stressed enough,
however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread
northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana
during the next day or so.

Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the
western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until
dissipation occurs in a couple of days.  The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the
tightly clustered track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 29.3N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 30.1N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1800Z 30.8N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0600Z 31.4N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  19/1800Z 32.1N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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