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Tropical Storm DORIAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  11(21)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  19(31)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  13(31)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  15(21)   2(23)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  10(29)   1(30)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   7(23)   1(24)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   7(31)   1(32)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   3(16)   X(16)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   X(21)   X(21)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  51(55)   2(57)   X(57)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   1(23)   X(23)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  19(37)   X(37)   X(37)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  32(35)  11(46)   X(46)   X(46)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  46(51)   9(60)   X(60)   X(60)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  39(43)   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   1( 1)  38(39)  21(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
GRENADA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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