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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian
Inlet FL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and
Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 79.2 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slightly
faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected
through this morning.  A turn toward the north is forecast by this
evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday
morning.  On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast
through tonight.  The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).  Saint Augustine Beach Pier, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(84 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Treasure
Coast of Florida for a few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions
are beginning along the northeastern coast of Florida and should
begin along the Georgia coast later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida by early today.  Tropical storm
conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the
Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from Sebastian, Florida to the Georgia, South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida during the next several hours.  This risk will
shift to along the immediate coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas
later today into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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