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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...WINDS IN DORIAN REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.0 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week.  On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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