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Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near Puerto Rico
and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later today. Dorian is then
forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas by Thursday night, and near or to the east of
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast today, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across
the higher terrain of Puerto Rico. Dorian is expected to gradually
re-strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Virgin Islands, Haiti, and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the
Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning
across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.