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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Special Advisory Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general motion
toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move
across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this
evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then
move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.  While Dorian is
forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone during the
next 24 hours, it is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds as
it moves across eastern Canada this afternoon through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km).  NOAA buoy 44011 to the southwest
of the center recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h)
and a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h).  A station at Baccarro Point,
Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area
in Maine during the next several hours.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning this afternoon, and
they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight.  Tropical
Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova
Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical
Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through tonight:

Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches.
Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches.
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF:  Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days.  Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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