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Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...
...CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Ponte Vedra Beach
Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West.
Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island.  A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning.  A
turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a
turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning.  On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound
Grand Bahama Island today.  The hurricane will then move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday
evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday
night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).  A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently
reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening.  Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning.  Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia.  These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight.  This risk will shift to immediate
coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into
Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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