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Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.  Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 73.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week.  On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance
planes was 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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