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HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
1500 UTC THU AUG 29 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  67.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  67.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  66.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.9N  68.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N  69.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.6N  71.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.3N  73.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N  76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.5N  79.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.1N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  67.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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