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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the
coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout.  Based on data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities,
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt.  This estimate is a
compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values.  The
minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface
observations and aircraft fixes.  There have been several reports in
eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and
hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in
the northern eyewall.

Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt.  A faster northeastward
motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow.  This track forecast takes the
hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend.  The models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple
of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is
expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about
36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that.  These
atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to
become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days.  As
the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to expand significantly.  The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various
consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of
southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay.  Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 34.6N  76.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 36.0N  74.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 38.8N  69.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 42.5N  65.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 46.7N  61.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0600Z 53.0N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0600Z 58.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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