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Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Deep convection associated with Chantal has diminished and is
confined to some disorganized patches of showers and thunderstorms
northeast of the center.  The advisory intensity estimate is held
at 35 kt, pending the arrival of new scatterometer data.  The
cyclone should continue to move through a dry mid- to low-level
air mass, with humidities less than 40 percent, during the next few
days.  This is likely to cause weakening, and it is expected that
Chantal will become a tropical depression tomorrow and a remnant
low by Friday.  Given the current appearance of the system, loss
of tropical cyclone status and dissipation are now forecast to occur
much sooner than earlier anticipated.  This is in good agreement
with the latest HWRF model run.

The storm is moving just south of east, or 100/17 kt.  Little
change has been made to the previous track forecast or reasoning.
Chantal should follow a clockwise path, around the western periphery
of a mid-level high pressure area, at a slower forward speed over
the next few days. In 3-4 days, what is left of the cyclone is
likely to turn northwestward to northward.  The official track
forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus, TVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 39.8N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.4N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 38.5N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 37.3N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z 35.4N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z 36.0N  42.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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