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Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Xavier continues to be influenced by strong southwesterly shear, on
the order of 30 kt, yet appears to be maintaining its intensity for
now.  In fact, microwave imagery shows only a slight eastward tilt
of the center with height which is surprising for a tropical
cyclone apparently experiencing shear of such magnitude.  It is
quite possible that strong upper-level divergence over the area is
helping to maintain the strength of the storm.  Dvorak intensity
estimates remain at 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB which will continue
to be used for the advisory intensity.  In spite of Xavier's
resilience to a hostile atmospheric environment, the strong shear
and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass should soon take their
toll on the cyclone.  The GFS and the ECMWF global models suggest
that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within a couple
of days, and this is also shown by the official forecast.

Xavier has been moving slowly and just to the west of north, or a
motion of 350/5 kt, toward a slight weakness in the mid-level flow
to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula.  A ridge is
forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, and this should cause
Xavier to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so.
By 3-4 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is likely to move
generally westward within the low-level flow field.  The official
forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 18.5N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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