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Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Xavier continues to show a sheared cloud pattern in conventional
satellite imagery this afternoon, with the low-level center located
near or just southwest of the main convective mass.  The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 45
kt, and recent scatterometer data also indicate winds near 45 kt.
Thus, the initial intensity remains at that value.  Analyses from
CIMSS and from the SHIPS model indicate that Xavier is still in an
environment of 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.

There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the
last advisory.  During the next 12-24 h, the dynamical models
suggest that an upper-level trough located to the north and west of
Xavier should provide upper-level divergence over the cyclone.  This
could allow some additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear.
After that time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the
tropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence, moderate to
strong shear, and a dry surrounding air that should cause it to
weaken. Based on this evolution, the intensity forecast calls for a
little more strengthening early in the forecast, followed by gradual
weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.  As in the
previous forecast, Xavier is expected to degenerate to a remnant low
in about 96 h.  The forecast again follows the overall trend of the
intensity guidance and lies near the upper edge of the guidance
through 48 h.

The initial motion is now 060/8.  As mentioned previously, Xavier
should turn northeastward and then northward during the next 24 h
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the
aforementioned trough.  As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow
system, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west
as it is steered by the low-level flow to the south of the
subtropical ridge.  All of the dynamical models follow this
scenario except for the UKMET, which shows a much more northward
motion toward the southern Gulf of California.  The new forecast
track will follow the model consensus in showing the westward
motion, and the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 15.6N 106.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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