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Tropical Storm XAVIER


Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018

For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed
over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates
from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial
intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the
"X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992.

No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical
storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity
is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier
should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong
upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the
cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the
tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or
so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already
near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By
early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment
will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low.

It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening,
but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving
generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending
over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to
turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has
been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which
now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of
Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the
cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it
weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its
ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC
forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through
48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus.


INIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Zelinsky