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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM INLAND NEAR DURANGO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 104.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SE OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal tropical
cyclone warnings for Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was
located inland Mexico near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.6
West. Willa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (32 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours.
The forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over
west-central Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate by this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly near and to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge levels along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit will gradually
subside today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large waves and rough surf conditions.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico.  This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue inland across
portions of west-central mainland Mexico this morning.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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