ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. Willa is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias early Tuesday and then make landfall along the west-
central coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area
Tuesday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, but Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.
Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and
SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.